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FRIDAY — Del Mar Race 7 — Kathryn Crosby Stakes

Wanted to draw your attention to this race because I think there's some real value here and, if you can crack it, it's going to pay extremely well.

The race is a turf mile and has a ton of talent including some familiar names, but also (in my opinion) an intriguing 20-1 shot.

QUEBEC (#6, 9/2), WAY TO VERSAILLES (#7, 7/2), and TONAHUTU (#8, 6-1) just faced each other a month ago and finished a blanket 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the Swingtime B Stakes at Santa Anita. I was most impressed with Tonahutu's run, coming from way back to almost catch the leaders. The track was speed-favoring and, had the race been an extra furlong, she'd have won. I like her the best out of these 3.

Other horses with a chance include GLIDING BY (#1, 8-1) who will be overlooked because of her spotty record, but draw a line through everything that ISN'T a 7f or 8f turf race and you're left with some impressive runs; and LAST PROMISE KEPT (#11, 5-1) who I feel is way too low odds at 5-1 but, with this jock/trainer combo, could steal it. Likewise, SWEET CHARITY (#10, 6-1) never seems to run a bad race and has been competitive against MUCH stronger fields than this, though I'm not sure if she's fast enough to get the win.

But the horse I'm most curious about is ESCAPE CLAUSE (#9, 20-1) who has reeled off 8 CONSECUTIVE VICTORIES, most at open lengths. The horse also has great speed numbers, the top Power number, and has been training extremely well.

The only knock I can see is that the horse has never run on the grass, and I'm not entirely sure why the connections chose Saturday to start. Why not bump the horse up to graded stakes races on the dirt?

And why the hell is this horse 20-1?! I'd take 6-1 on this gal and be happy, so I hope she scares off people looking for turf milers and gets us a great price.

Bet of the weekend if she runs the way I think she might. Don't leave her out of your exotics.

submitted by /u/WriterDave [link] [comments]

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